In the first half of 2018, new energy vehicles have driven a large increase in the installed capacity of batteries, and the unit users of new energy passenger vehicles have changed to private users. The consumption area is expanding from purchase-restricted cities to non-restricted cities.
At the beginning of 2018, the state vigorously promoted the development of new energy vehicles. Due to the transition period adjustment of the subsidy policy, the overall sales of new energy vehicles in the first half of the year until June 12 performed well under the condition of rushing to install batteries.
First, the purchase restrictions in first-tier cities have made new energy vehicles the first choice for users who intend to purchase them. Free registration and purchase tax exemption have attracted a large part of the user group. Promote new energy passenger vehicles as means of public transportation. The development of new energy vehicles is becoming more and more high-end. The advantages of technology, comfort and convenience have successfully entered the public's field of vision, and the overall competitiveness has gradually increased, thus driving the growth of new energy vehicles.
In the first half of 2018, a total of 381,000 new energy vehicles were produced in China, a year-on-year increase of 106.6%, including 285,000 pure electric vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 87.5%; and 95,000 hybrid vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 196.9%. The large increase in the production of new energy vehicles has driven the growth of battery installed capacity. In the first half of 2018, the domestic power battery installed capacity was 15.5GWh, a year-on-year increase of 167.1%, of which pure electric installed capacity reached 14.15GWh, a year-on-year increase of 87.2%; hybrid installed capacity The volume reached 1.4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 156.9%.
Chart 1: Year-on-year growth rate of new energy vehicles and power batteries in the first half of 2018 (unit: %)
Two major changes in the new energy vehicle market have given the industry confidence. One of the changes is that the sales target of new energy passenger vehicles is changing from unit users to private users - in 2015, the proportion of private purchases was only 42.6%, and in the first seven months of 2018, it increased to 72.1%; another change is that the consumption area is Expanding from purchase-restricted cities to non-purchase-restricted cities—In 2015, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in purchase-restricted cities accounted for 69.6%, and in the first seven months of 2018, the sales in purchase-restricted cities had shrunk to 42.6%.
Figure 2: Changes in the ownership distribution of new energy passenger vehicles (unit: %)
Figure 3: Urban distribution of private purchases of new energy passenger vehicles (restricted/non-restricted)
The promotion of new energy vehicles will usher in a transitional stage, the industrial foundation needs to be improved, and the focus of future competition will be networking and intelligence
From 2021 to 2025, it will be a transitional stage for the promotion of new energy vehicles in my country. At this stage, subsidies will be withdrawn, the "double points" policy will be followed, and the license right-of-way policy will continue to be implemented. In addition, consumer pain points such as cruising range, battery cost, and charging facilities will be significantly improved. After 2025, the long-term advantages of the development of new energy vehicles will be highlighted, breakthroughs in battery technology will make up for the shortcomings of new energy vehicles, and the advantages in smart vehicles and autonomous driving technology will continue to be maintained.
While China's new energy industry is booming, there are still some problems. For example, the foundation of the new energy industry is not yet solid, the comprehensive performance of power batteries still needs to be improved, and the development of the entire industry chain from resource development to recycling is not balanced enough. The problem is also not perfect. Recently, at the "2018 2nd Global Future Travel Conference", the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that it will work with relevant departments to focus on the following four aspects:
Figure 4: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that there are four key points in the work plan for new energy vehicles
According to the analysis, there are three major trends in the current new energy vehicle market.
The electrification of automobiles is developing in depth. All previous industrial revolutions were triggered by the first breakthroughs in disruptive technologies in energy, communication and transportation. The difference this time is that the process of electrification of automotive power technology is not based on the positive development of the technology itself and the pull of market demand, but because of the urgency of controlling greenhouse gas emissions and concerns about sustainable development, many governments continue to Intervention has become the first driving force for the electrification of automotive power technology. The government has not only formulated policies to encourage companies to develop new energy vehicles, but has also instituted even seemingly aggressive timetables for banning the sale of traditional fuel vehicles, in order to change the expectations of manufacturers and consumers.
After China announced the implementation of the dual-point policy in 2020, the European Commission proposed a new carbon dioxide emission standard in November 2017, and the carbon dioxide emissions per kilometer of new cars should be reduced by another 15% by 2025 and another 30% by 2030. According to regulations, the carbon emission of new cars will be reduced to 95 grams per kilometer in 2021, and a fine of 95 euros per kilometer will be imposed.
Meet the competitive situation of big waves. my country has been promoting the industrialization of electric vehicles for 10 years, and has achieved world-renowned achievements. The next two important time nodes will be. First, in 2020, the dual-point policy will be implemented and government subsidies will be terminated. At that time, new car-making forces have entered in large numbers, and foreign-funded enterprises and joint ventures will also exert their efforts. When consumers buy cars, the influence of government subsidies has been excluded. Pure electric, extended-range, hybrid and fuel vehicles will compete on the same stage. Market factors such as product quality, taste, brand and price will determine the choice of consumers, forming a very fierce market competition; the gap between enterprises will widen. Uncompetitive enterprises will be marginalized, and the power of mergers and acquisitions and restructuring will increase. The second node is that by 2025, the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles will reach or exceed that of fuel vehicles. Market forces will promote consumption transformation and tilt towards electrification. At this time, fuel vehicles and electric vehicles will disappear and increase, and traditional vehicles will face more challenges. great pressure.
The focus of future competition is the networking and intelligence of electric vehicles. New energy vehicles subvert traditional fuel vehicles, which is a better connection with greening, networking, intelligence and sharing. The battery cruising range and charging piles that the government and enterprises are concerned about are only a prelude to the whole process, and the future competition will focus on informatization, networking, and intelligence, and finally realize unmanned driving, giving people a new experience. In terms of intelligent network connection, the National Development and Reform Commission released the "Intelligent Vehicle Innovation and Development Strategy" earlier this year, pointing out that by 2020, the proportion of new intelligent vehicles will exceed 50%. According to a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, by 2025, there will be more than 470 million connected cars on the road worldwide. In the next four years, the market size of transport services and related digital services will reach 140 billion euros. Smart cars are becoming a new battlefield for OEMs, parts suppliers, and Internet companies.
Chart 5: Development Trend of New Energy Vehicle Market
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