Electronic enthusiasts eight o'clock: "New York Times" published an article on March 28, according to the results of two famous economists, robots and humans will compete for a job: if a robot is equipped for every thousand workers Six workers will be unemployed and their wages will fall by three-quarters.
The following is the full text of the article:
In the competition between robots and humans, who will be the winner? Last year, two famous economists described that humans will win in the future, but now they have announced that robots will be slightly better.
The industry most affected by automation is the manufacturing industry. According to a new study by economists, MIT's Daron Acemoglu and Boston University's Pascual Restrepo, for every thousand workers Equipping a robot will cause six workers to lose their jobs and their wages fall by three-quarters. This seems to be the first to quantify and directly study the negative effects of robots.
The importance of this paper is more in the fact that the two researchers are well-known in the industry, and they have been more optimistic about the impact of technology on employment. In an article published last year, they pointed out that the increase in automation may create new and better jobs, so employment and wages will eventually return to their previous levels. Just as cranes replaced dockers, they provided jobs for engineers and financiers. In theory, new technologies created new jobs for software development and data analysis.
But that article is just a conceptual inference. The new research uses real-world data and demonstrates a more pessimistic future. The researchers said they were surprised to see that the employment opportunities in other occupations increased little and almost impossible to compensate for the employment losses in the manufacturing sector. They said that employment growth is still possible, but the current problem is that a large number of people are unemployed and there is no clear way out, especially for the blue-collar workers who do not have a university degree.
“The conclusion is that even if the overall employment and wage levels are restored, there will still be losers in the process. In these groups, the recovery will take a long time,†Asimoglu said. “If you work in Detroit. In 10 years, you can't have health skills," he said. “The market economy itself will not create jobs for these workers that are subject to change shocks.â€
The idea that technology replaces job opportunities in this paper contrasts with previous comments by US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, who posted last week’s opinion on the Axios website that artificial intelligence “will not even "Replace human work" on the radar screen, its development still needs "50-100 years". (Not all artificial intelligence used by robots, MIT has launched a speech on Nuchin in the Journal of Digital Economy Voting, in the end, the experts expressed the same broad concern about robots leading to human unemployment.) This paper also helps to unravel a mystery that has long plagued economists: machines replace workers, why not bring about an increase in productivity. In the industry, productivity has increased more than in other industries, and now we can also find evidence in the employment data. This study analyzes the role of industrial robots in the US local labor market. Between 1990 and 2007, due to the use of robots The number of unemployed people is 670,000. The article concludes that this number will rise because of industrial machines. The number of people is expected to quadruple. The evidence in this paper suggests that automation will have more long-term threats to blue-collar workers than other factors such as trade and offshore investment mentioned in President Trump’s campaign. Researchers say even imports The conditions of offshore outsourcing, software replacement employment, worker demographics, and industry type are controlled, and the results of the study (ie, "the robot has a huge and powerful negative impact on employment and wages") remain strong.
Researchers have found that robots have an impact on both male and female jobs, but have twice the impact on men's employment. These data do not explain the reasons, but Mr. Asimoglu speculated that women working in low-post areas are more able to withstand the pressure of pay cuts than men.
Economists have studied the impact of robots on the local economy and have made the line of sight wider. In an isolated area, every thousand workers equipped with a robot would cause 6.2 workers to lose their jobs and wages fell by 0.7%. But across the country, the impact is smaller because it creates jobs elsewhere.
Take the Detroit Auto City as an example. This is the largest gathering place for industrial robots, and employment has been greatly affected. If automakers hire fewer workers, car prices will fall, and employment opportunities in other areas of the US such as steelmakers or taxi operators may increase. At the same time, Detroit people may spend less on the store. Taking into account these factors, every worker with a robot will cause three workers to lose their jobs and their wages will fall by 0.25%.
As in the past, this discovery has led to whether technology will help people work more efficiently and create new jobs, or eventually replace human arguments.
David Autor, a collaborator of Mr. Asimoglu at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the United States, believes that machines will complement, not replace, humans, and that machines cannot replicate human traits such as common sense and empathy. He said: "I don't think this paper is the final conclusion of this topic, but it is meticulously conceived and thought-provoking, and it is the first in the field," he said.
Mr. Restreper said that the problem may be that the new jobs created by technology and the original work no longer use a place, like the Rust Belt, which refers to the recession of traditional industries near the Great Lakes in the Midwest. )Case. “I still believe that there will be work in the next few years, although it may not be as much as we are today,†he said. “But these data made me worry about those who are directly exposed to the robot.â€
In addition to the automotive industry, industrial robots are also widely used in the manufacturing of electronics, metal products, plastics and chemicals. They do not require human handling and can be used for welding, painting and packaging. From 1993 to 2007, the United States added a new industrial robot to every thousand workers, mainly in the Midwest, South and East, and the use of robots in Western Europe was 1000:1.6.
The National Bureau of Economic Research research report was released on Monday, using robotic data from the International Robotics Federation (without ongoing data on the value of robotic money). It analyzes the impact of robots on employment and wages in commuter areas and is a measure of the local economy.
The next question is whether the arrival of future technology waves (such as machine learning, drones and driverless cars) will lead to similar results and make more people a victim.
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