In 1997, IBM's Deep Blue defeated the world's number one chess player, Gary Kasparov, and the wave of artificial intelligence swept for the first time. Recently, Alpha Go developed by Google defeated the chess player Li Shizhen, and once again triggered the discussion that robots will replace people. Practitioners in the field of artificial intelligence generally believe that in the fields of chess, Go, and regular rules, human beings can no longer defeat the machine.
Lao Luo once said: Artificial intelligence is like a train. When it approaches, you hear the rumbling sound, and you are constantly expecting it to come. He finally arrived, flashed past, and then left you behind.
Liu Cixin, the author of "Three-body", said in an interview with the "West China Metropolis Daily" last year that artificial intelligence is likely to replace human work and cause unemployment. Just like the large-scale replacement of labor in automated machines in the 20th century, in modern society, to what extent artificial intelligence will replace human beings, what type of occupation bears the brunt?
What areas does artificial intelligence bring to subversion?
In fact, the driverless system is more reliable than people.
The concept of artificial intelligence was first proposed by Turing, which refers to all methods and techniques for imitating, extending and expanding human intelligence. It sounds abstract, but in fact, artificial intelligence has quietly entered life. Whether it is the Siri that comes with the iPhone, the voice recognition technology built in the navigation system or the automatic driving system, it is the expression of artificial intelligence.
In the future, the most important aspect of artificial intelligence is that the application scenarios should be transportation, medical care, and industrial upgrading and revolution.
First of all, driverless technology can effectively reduce the probability of traffic accidents. Even though Tesla’s driverless driver has had several accidents in the near future, Wu Jun still believes that the driverless accident rate is very low compared to the person himself.
"Google drones have driven nearly two million kilometers, and there have been two traffic accidents, which is much better than people." Wu Jun said, "There are more than 30,000 people in the United States who die each year from traffic accidents. Billion people. So in fact, driverless cars can not only save time, but also be safe for the whole society." Wu Jun said.
Secondly, artificial intelligence helps to democratize technology and promote the services of the main high-class class to the civilian class. In the field of medicine, artificial intelligence contributes to the development of clinical medicine and personalized medicine. Extensive genetic testing by means of machine learning enables personalized medicine for individual patients to effectively control cancer cell variability. At the same time, the combination of artificial intelligence and mechanical technology, the robot used for clinical surgery has also entered the research and development stage.
Wu Jun said: "A new surgical robot is being developed for eye surgery. The accuracy rate can be as high as two thousandths of a millimeter. Very accurate. Even the best doctors, after magnifying the image of the surgery, the doctor's hands are Surgery with shaking, so in these areas, artificial intelligence will surpass people in the future."
Wu Gansha, CEO of the company, also expressed a similar point: "It is very difficult to find an expert to see a doctor now. With computer-aided diagnosis, it may be that many people will enjoy such a good technology at once. In fact, legal services are the same. It turns out that you have to spend a lot of money to hire a lawyer, and you may be able to enjoy it now with a smart assistant."
How do traditional enterprises get on the artificial intelligence express?
Huawei and Google are technology-driven global companies. Unfortunately, BAT is not
How traditional enterprises get on the artificial intelligence express, how much difference between Chinese companies and Google and other companies, Wu Jun's view is very optimistic, that the distance in the field of artificial intelligence is about 3-5 years.
But Hu Yu, the founder of Keda Xunfei, doesn't think so. He thinks that there is a fundamental difference between the innovations of the two countries. The United States is the original innovation, from 0 to 1; and China is only good at 1 to n. "You can say that it is three months, or three years. If there is a technology, the professor of Stanford in the United States has begun to study. This thing is guaranteed to be made by Tsinghua University professors within three months, but if American professors have not studied this thing. Within three years, no one in China will do this thing.†Hu Yu said, “The innovation that the United States does is original innovation, which has not been done by others. We have made it. China It is to do globalization, that is, to be more advanced and advanced technology, we can also learn, and then make it the price of cabbage, and then spread it to the whole world, so that developed countries have no money to earn."
In terms of the future development of artificial intelligence in the enterprise, compared with BAT, Wu Jun is more optimistic about Huawei. He believes that Huawei is one of the few "technology-driven" companies in China. "Apple, Google, and Facebook have high market capitalization. One of the important reasons is that they are global, and BAT is not. Huawei is more promising as a global enterprise." Wu Jun said, "From In terms of current mobile phone sales, Apple is falling, while Huawei is rising. Because Huawei is a technology company, and Apple is a product company, so you see how he makes products, Huawei's P9 mobile phone, from photography indicators. On, it is much better than the iphone of the same price."
Who will be abandoned by the times?
Not just a quick-tracker, but also a lawyer and a doctor
If the robot can be used in a wide range, which group of people will be eliminated first? What is certain is that the practitioners of mechanical and repetitive work face the greatest risks. For example, a stenographer at a large conference.
Wu Jun believes that white-collar workers who are engaged in repetitive work bear the brunt. "For example, paralegals, doctors, and engineers testing products are very dangerous." Wu Jun said. And Yong Yong, executive vice president of Microsoft Research Asia, believes that people who rely solely on memory work are more likely to be replaced. "If you are a group of people who are controlled by the left brain, the impact is relatively large, because you rely on memory, relying on some simple calculations, the impact of this part of the right brain is relatively small, because of abstract ability, imagination Ability, artistic ability, ability to play."
From an industry perspective, Wu Gansha said: "I think the speed of using artificial intelligence on the B side will be very fast. First, artificial intelligence can improve efficiency and reduce labor, which is the most attractive for the boss. Second The price of artificial intelligence is currently more expensive, and the payment ability of the B side is much stronger than that of the C end."
Will artificial intelligence counteract humans?
No panic, the last resort is to pull the power
For the future of artificial intelligence, it will eventually surpass humans and control human beings, causing many people to panic. But scientists believe that such fears are too worrying. Wu Jun believes that worrying about robots replacing human beings is as absurd as having nothing to do with "ghosts" because "ghosts" are most likely not to exist. "What you really worry about on the battlefield is the person who is going to hit you with a gun, instead of looking for a 'ghost' like a park aunt. This is a directional error." Wu Jun said.
Yong Yong believes that in the field of clear rules and algorithms, such as the proven single intelligence of chess can easily surpass humans. But in areas where the rules are unclear, humans are much stronger than machines. "Comprehensive artificial intelligence involves a lot of content, I think there is still a long way to go. Don't worry." Yong Yong said frankly.
Liu Cixin’s previous judgment was even more extreme. He believed that those who fell into panic made the same mistake. It is thought that theoretical breakthroughs in technical barriers will certainly be achieved. It's really impossible to unplug the power, so artificial intelligence is nothing.
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