This article is reproduced from: Military Industry, Wen: Hu Zhengyang
The global drone market is in a period of rapid development. Among them, military drones occupy more than 80% of the market share, and the significance is prominent. With the implementation of China's military-civilian integration strategy, private listed companies are developing in military drones. The field will play an increasingly important role. This article focuses on the study of China's military drone market, into this feast, to find out who will be the biggest beneficiary?
summary
On the one hand, peace and development are still the themes of the current era, but local wars and conflicts are on the rise. Military demand drives the military drone market to grow. On the other hand, China’s defense spending has maintained steady growth, and US military spending has slowed down. Russia's force drones have experienced rapid growth in defense spending, and the world's major UAVs have sufficient national budgets to ensure the stable development of military drones.
Assuming that China's defense spending grows at an annual rate of 8% in 2016-2020, defense spending will reach 1.34 trillion by 2020. In 2015, the output value of China's military drones was about 4.2 billion yuan, accounting for 0.46% of defense expenditures, far lower than the proportion of expenditures of 0.8% in the United States. It is assumed that by 2020, the proportion of military drones will reach 0.7%. China's military drone market will reach 9.3 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 17.23%. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-2020), the total size of China's military drone market will reach 35.3 billion yuan .
China vs. the United States, China's military drones have obvious advantages under strong competition : (1) China has formed a relatively complete matrix of UAV products , and has developed models that compete with the United States in various UAV categories; China's military drones are inferior in performance, but the price advantage is huge, cost-effective; (3) US military drone export procedures are cumbersome, with a large number of legal provisions, and China's drone exports are more convenient; (4) China's unique "production, study and research" research and development model fully mobilizes the advantages of all parties, which is conducive to the rapid penetration of the drone market.
China's military UAV research and development main body : (1) Universities: Northwestern Polytechnical University, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, etc.; (2) Research institutes: China Aviation Industry Corporation, China Aerospace Science and Technology Group, the 11th Research Institute, China Aerospace Science and Industry Group, the 60th Research Institute of the General Staff, etc.; (3) Private listed companies: Weihai Guangtai, Nanyang Technology, Xingwang Yuda, etc.
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Drone: from military, military
The development of military drones can be divided into three phases. The first stage from the early 20th century to the 1950s: the first drone was developed in 1917; the first military unmanned drone was officially commissioned in the 1930s, and the British queen drone served in the Navy and the Army. . In the second phase from the mid-20th century to the 1990s, the navigation and positioning and remote control technologies gradually matured. The fixed-wing UAVs developed steadily. In the 1950s, some countries began to develop rotor-wing unmanned helicopters and used them in warfare. The third stage is from the end of the 20th century to the present: the drone has been expanded from the initial reconnaissance function to the compound drone that meets the inspection and integration. The advent of the world's eagle, phantom, rainbow and other drones has also made the gap between drones and manned aircraft. It is getting smaller and smaller; major military countries are also increasing the investment budget for drones at this stage, and military drones have entered the high-speed development channel.
The original military drone was used as a target aircraft for shooting training. With the advancement of technology, the functions of military drones expanded to reconnaissance surveillance, intelligence gathering, and air strikes, and equipped with photoelectric detection, radar equipment and weaponry. The drone achieved military use for non-contact, zero casualties, and precision strikes. At present, military drones can be divided into target machines, tactical drones, strategic drones and unmanned combat aircraft.
With the spillover of military drone technology to the civilian sector and the reduction of production costs, the civilian drone market has developed rapidly. According to IDC and QFY Consulting's September 2016 survey data. The sales scale of domestic civil drones has exploded since 2014. It is estimated that the sales volume in 2018 will reach 11.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 80.65%. By 2023, China's drone market will reach 97.7 billion yuan. Globally, in 2015, the sales volume of civilian drones was 569,000, of which about 398,000 were consumer-grade drones, accounting for 70%; by 2019, the annual sales of civilian drones will reach 3.93 million, of which The consumption level was 3 million, which increased to 76%.
Civil drones can be directly applied to pesticide spraying, forest fire fighting, artificial rainfall, etc.; with professional imaging equipment, aerial images can be taken in multiple directions and at multiple angles, such as sports events, urban publicity, aerial photography of wedding photography; In terms of security, it can also be used instead of manual inspections and traffic patrols. In addition, for the vast forest areas, the use of fixed-wing drones for electric cruising provides more excellent life and covers a wider range of services. Reduce labor costs and increase efficiency.
Military drones have always been the focus of the global drone market. According to research data from the Teal Group, military drones accounted for 89% of the global drone market in 2014. Although civil drones have developed rapidly in recent years, they still have far less share in the overall drone market. Military drones; the market for civilian drones is expected to increase to 14% by 2024, and military drones remain the main form of drones.
The proportion of newly delivered fighter drones increased. According to the data of the Tiel Group, the proportion of unmanned aerial vehicles (excluding micro-UAVs) in new globally delivered military aircraft will increase from 8% in 2010 to 15% in 2018, while manned fighter/attack aircraft/ The proportion of reconnaissance aircraft will drop from 45% to 44%; the proportion of new deliveries of global drones (excluding micro drones) will increase from 35% in 2010 to 49% in 2018. Some fighters/attack aircraft The proportion of reconnaissance aircraft will fall from 15% to 14%.
The role of military drones plays a pivotal role. This is also the significance of this paper in the study of military drones. The development of military drones in the future is related to the development of the entire drone market.
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Military drone driver
Military demand is the main driving force of military drones
Peace and development remain the themes of the modern era, but local wars and conflicts are one after another. On the one hand, China’s territorial disputes have always existed, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula is complicated. On the other hand, the hotspots in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are in constant conflict, and hegemonism and power politics are still rampant. Military drones are increasingly favored for their zero casualties. With the continuous improvement of imaging, control, communication and other technologies, the status of military UAVs in detecting and warning and combating in the future combat system is becoming more prominent. .
The US Department of Defense’s investment in drones is heavily influenced by military warfare. In 2001, after the "9-11" incident, the United States significantly increased military spending. In 2002, the US Department of Defense's investment in drones reached 763 million US dollars, an increase of 110% over the previous year. Subsequently, the US Department of Defense's investment in drones grew rapidly, reaching a peak of $3.766 billion in 2010. After Obama took office, he gradually cut military spending, and the growth rate of drone investment slowed down.
Defense expenditure guarantees drone growth
China's defense spending still has a large room for growth, and military drones will also maintain growth. In the past ten years, China's defense expenditure has maintained steady growth. In 2016, the national defense expenditure budget was 954.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, which fell to single digits. However, compared with some developed countries, China's military expenditure growth rate is still considerable. China's defense expenditure as a share of GDP is 1.32%, far lower than Russia's and Israel's 5.4%; per capita defense costs are only 156 US dollars, far lower than the US's 1854 US dollars and Israel's 1923 US dollars.
US defense spending has slowed down. In 2008, US defense spending began to decline. From 2012 to 2015, US defense spending maintained a negative growth. After Trump took office, he plans to raise the defense budget ceiling and spend the necessary funds to purchase advanced military equipment, including increasing the number of troops to 540,000, increasing the number of warships to 350, and increasing the number of fighters to 1,200. In recent years, we have transformed our weapons and equipment strategy and developed towards high-tech, concealed, small-scale, low-injury wars. Military drones cater to the needs of US military strategy with low cost and labor training costs and no casualties. And in the Middle East, Afghanistan and other places in the actual combat have received very good results.
Russia’s defense spending has grown at a high rate, making drones. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia experienced a dramatic change in the field of military drones. The equipment development plan was stagnant for ten years, while other countries have made rapid progress in the development of drones. After 2010, Russia invested heavily in drone projects, and Sea Eagle-10 was successfully applied in Syrian operations with its high performance. Since then, the number of Russian drones has increased year by year. The current "patrol whistle-600" drones are comparable in performance to the US Predator attack drones.
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China military UAV market size calculation
133.53 billion market size
According to the forecast of the Teal Group, the global military and civilian drones will increase from US$6.4 billion in 2015 to US$11.5 billion in 2024. The total expenditure for the decade (2015~2024) will reach US$91 billion, with a compound growth rate of 6.7. %.
According to our calculations, the total size of China's military drone market will reach 35.3 billion yuan during the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-2020). China's defense spending growth is relatively stable. In 2015, defense expenditure reached 908.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.63%. The growth rate has slowed down. Assuming an annual growth rate of 8% in 2016-2020, China's defense spending will reach 13,400 by 2020. Billion. In 2015, the output value of China's military drones was about 4.2 billion yuan, accounting for 0.46% of defense expenditures, far lower than the proportion of expenditures of 0.8% in the United States. It is assumed that by 2020, the proportion of military drones will reach 0.7%. China's military drone market will reach 9.3 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 17.23%, significantly higher than the global average growth rate.
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The development opportunities of Chinese drones under strong competition
China's military drone products are rich in variety and cost-effective
After more than half a century of development, China has formed a relatively complete matrix of UAV products, and has developed models that compete with the United States in various UAV categories. In several typical applications of high-altitude long-haul, long-haul airships, and inspections, and other unmanned aerial vehicles, China has developed military drones that correspond to the United States. For example, in the high-altitude long-range drone, the US "Global Hawk" is an iconic drone product. In this case, China produces and develops the same type of "Xianglong" drone; In the man-machine, China has developed the "Pterosaur" drone, which corresponds to the US "predator".
Compared with the United States, China's military drones are slightly inferior in performance, but the price advantage is huge and cost-effective. In terms of parameter performance, "Xianglong" has already surpassed the US "Global Hawk" unmanned reconnaissance aircraft in cruising speed. The maximum altitude of takeoff has been equal to that of the United States, but the "Xianglong" has lower load capacity and shorter battery life; The "Pterosaur" UAV has reached the level of the US Predator drone in terms of wingspan, speed and carrying equipment, but there is still a gap between the "Predator" drones in terms of battery life and maximum range. . In terms of price, the price of "Pterosaur" is only 1/4 of the same type of "predator" in the United States, and the price is high.
Chinese military drones are more relaxed
The export procedures for US military drones are cumbersome and involve a large number of legal provisions. On October 5, 2016, 45 countries including the United States have agreed to sign the Joint Statement on the Export and Follow-up of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles that may be armed or may be capable of strike. The signatories to the joint statement agreed that the export of such drones would be in line with existing relevant international arms control and disarmament regulations and multilateral export control and non-proliferation regimes.
The export conditions of Chinese military drones are relatively loose, and some products are subject to application registration. On July 31, 2015, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued the "Announcement on Strengthening the Export Control of Some Dual-Use Items". The export of some unmanned aerial vehicles must be registered with the competent department of commerce of the State Council and apply for "dual use". The Export License for Items and Technologies can be exported after obtaining a permit.
The “production, study and research†research and development model is unique
China's "production, study and research" research and development model fully mobilizes the advantages of all parties, is the cornerstone of the rapid development of China's drone business. The so-called industry-university research, including research institutes, universities and private enterprises of the military industry group. The military research institute has strong research and development capabilities, sufficient production capacity and high product quality. It is the leading force in the development and production of military drones in China; colleges and universities are unique in theoretical research and innovation, focusing on research and development and weak production capacity; private enterprises Has a keen market sense of smell and sales channels, but at a lower level of basic research and development. The three parties have complementary advantages, and the research and development capabilities of research institutes and universities can be combined with the manufacturing capabilities and market channels of private enterprises to achieve synergy.
The development model of U.S. drones is oriented to government needs. The US Department of Defense will develop a roadmap for the development of drones every two to three years to guide large military enterprises in the development of drones.
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China military drone manufacturers combing
The following table details the research institutes of research institutes, universities and private enterprises in the field of drones.
The institutions of higher learning that have long been engaged in the development of drones include Northwestern Polytechnical University, Beijing Aerospace University and Nanjing Aerospace University. These three universities hold mature R&D technology and occupy a pivotal position in the development of drones. For example, the ASN-206 series of unmanned aerial vehicles developed by Xi'an Aisheng Technology Group Co., Ltd. of Northwestern Polytechnical University in 1994 won the first prize of National Science and Technology Progress Award in 1996 with real-time video detection system and complete system-wide technology. Since then, the research and improvement of the drone has never been interrupted. In the 2015 military parade, the BZK-005 drone developed by the Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics UAV was unveiled. The UAV is a medium-high altitude long-range reconnaissance aircraft. Good stealth, widely used in reconnaissance missions and intelligence gathering.
China's military research institutes are the leading force in the development of drones. The successful test flight of the "Sword" UAV produced by AVIC Shenfei Design and AVIC Hongdu marks that China has become the third country to test large-scale stealth drones in the United States and Europe. In addition, the Rainbow Series UAV of the 11th Research Institute of AVIC has been exported to Pakistan, Myanmar and other countries, and has performed outstandingly in the actual faction of the military.
With the integration of military and civilians as a national strategy, private entities can participate more fully in the military market. The military industry group has accumulated a lot of excellent product resources with its financial strength and scientific research technology. Combined with the innovative spirit of the private enterprise “Dare to be the best in the worldâ€, the deep integration of military and civilians is not only the upgrading and innovation of the military industry, but also the profit growth of private enterprises. , are a win-win move. In this context, many private enterprises have laid out the layout of drones through restructuring acquisitions in addition to their main business. For example, in September 2014, the company announced that it has jointly invested 253 million yuan to establish Chengdu Zhongke Aviation Engine Co., Ltd., which is 21.45% of the shares issued by the Institute of Engineering Thermophysics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. In addition, Nanyang Technology announced the plan on October 1, 2016, intending to acquire 100% equity of Rainbow UAV Technology Co., Ltd. under the Aerospace Pneumatic Institute and 84% equity of Aerospace Shenzhou Aircraft Co., Ltd., and the high-quality military assets under the Aerospace Science and Technology Group were injected into the listed company. To form a development pattern of military-civilian integration.
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