"I stood in the strong wind, I hate to do it all." Tu Hongang's lyrics may be the voice of LeTV stock investors. For several months, Jia Yueting stirred up the situation in the capital market. For the past and present life of LeTV, various voices or laughter, or anger, were mixed. However, the negative effects resulting from this are all embarrassing.
Nowadays, LeTV has ushered in the resumption of the game, whether it is going down or coming back to life, which has attracted the attention of all parties involved in the capital market today. Among its many investors, there are institutions and retail investors. Despite their different moods, in the face of the actual stock price drop, they may have used the same lyrics. “Whoever is sad when they are wrong, how many years are they in a hurry? Funeral."
A plate of songs of ice fire: LeTV resumes the GEM or welcomes a new start
LeTV's resumption of trading is undoubtedly one of the major issues that A-share market investors are concerned about. What will the market think of this former "Boss" of the GEM?
On the morning of January 23, LeTV.com held an investor briefing session to stop the reorganization and operation. For the issue of resumption by investors, LeTV.com stated that “Please pay attention to the company’s announcement information for the resumption of the company's sharesâ€.
The news that LeTV is about to resume trading has exploded on the Internet and in the circle of friends. Of course, now that investors are discussing more, it is no longer the number of stoppages that LeTV will eat after resumption of trading. Instead, LeTV, which is one of the “four kings†of the GEM, will continue to be a “destroyed†gem. What impact does it have?
GEM refers to the valuation near the bottom of history
On January 22, the GEM indicator suddenly broke out and rose 2.32% at the close. But behind such an exciting trend, actually more of the GEM is pointing to a sharp decline after a period of adjustment. Since October 2016, the market style has gradually become more differentiated. The blue chip market represented by the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 and the small-cap stocks represented by the Growth Enterprise Market have gradually deviated. "Daily Economic News" reporter noted that in 2017, this divergence was even more pronounced, and growth stocks and value stocks staged "Icefire is a twin venture." In 2017, the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index rose 21.78%, while the ChiNext Composite Index fell 15.32%, a difference of 37% between the two.
“The 37% difference has hit a record high since the establishment of the GEM. However, from 2016 to 2017, the CSI 300 Index has outperformed the GEM for 2 consecutive years. Looking back at history, there is no large market for the time being. The blue chip has outperformed the growth sector for three consecutive years," said Everbright Securities in its research paper.
In addition, from the statistical data of the recent five years of valuation data, absolute valuation, the GEM has said that the current price-earnings ratio has dropped to the lowest in nearly 5 years, up to 48 times; relative valuation, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300's price-earnings ratio is currently close to 5 The annual new high is 15 times, the difference between the two is 33 times, which is the lowest in the past 5 years. “Although the overall valuation of the FBMACE has not yet returned to the historical bottom, the overall valuation and relative valuation of the GEM Index are already close to the historical bottomâ€, said Everbright Securities.
LeTV Replay or GEM New Starting Point
The ideal is very full, but the reality has to consider the emotional impact of LeTV.com's "Sword of Damocles" on the GEM.
LeTV.com, once a benchmark company for the GEM, once exceeded 100 billion yuan in market capitalization. It is the company with the largest market value on the GEM, but it currently has only 61.2 billion yuan, but it is also ranked sixth on the GEM. This "big head" ups and downs will have a certain impact on the GEM. For example, during the year of last year, whenever LeTV’s negative public opinion heats up, it will lead to continuous adjustment of the GEM. On the evening of October 15, 2017, LeTV disclosed its third-quarter performance forecast with a loss of RMB 1.6 billion. The day GEM Board fell more than 2%; as of last week, the news that LeTV is about to resume trading has made a significant adjustment to the GEM, so let alone after the resumption of the LeTV.
What will be the result after LeTV resumes? For its own sake, in November 2017, a number of fund companies announced that they would reduce the valuation of LeTV from 15.33 yuan/share before the suspension to 3.91 yuan/share, equivalent to 13 daily stops. As it is, the regulators have already prepared. "Daily Economic News" reporter noted that in order to avoid the impact of LeTV.com's resumption of trading, on December 18th, 2017, Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Information Co., Ltd. announced that they decided to use SZSE, SZSE 100, SME Board, and SME. Index indices such as the board index, small and medium innovations, and other sample stocks are regularly adjusted. Among them, LeTV has been removed from Shenzhen Stock Index, Shenzhen 100 Index and GEM Index. This adjustment has been officially implemented on the first trading day of 2018. Shen Wanhongyuan expressed that the GEM index and most of the growth stocks have very limited downside, especially LeTV has removed the GEM index. At the same time, Sino-Thai asset management officials also stated that LeTV has no effect on the GEM after it was removed.
In addition, "Daily Economic News" reporter learned that some people in the market believe that after more than a year of prolonged fermentation, LeTV's negative public sentiment has already been greatly digested by the GEM, and it will not drive continuous plates. In the downturn, most of the GEM stocks fell by 20% to 30%, and many even fell by 60% to 70%. If they are still sold, they will lose a lot. Those performance stocks that fall to a certain degree will stand up again.
“But does LeEco relisting have little influence on the market? This is probably not objective.†Sino-Thai asset management believes that “positively, this is the beginning of facing problems and solving problems. The high valuation of the GEM is a historically formed problem. In this sense, Suining will use LeTV as a new starting point for the FBMACE to resume trading, and then with a high probability of decline. Only by paying the debt will it be possible to continue on the road. Just pitiful friends holding LeTV.com shares."
A Private Equity Investment Advice: Sun Hongbin Cannot Understand LeTV's Future, It Is Not Necessary to Continue with a “Sentimentâ€
GEM's "Landmine" LeTV resumed trading on January 24, but private equity did not seem to worry about the negative impact of the resumption of the stock on the market. "Daily Economic News" reporter found after visiting the major private circles, there are private funds that "LeTV is no longer their own food." Even private equity secretly talked, and some private equity "stepped on" LeTV but hesitated to say. However, private equity is not optimistic about LeTV.com and it is advised that small and medium investors should not participate.
Most private equity concerns decrease
LeTV’s resumption of trading on January 24 means that the GEM’s “landmine†or detonation.
However, the market does not seem to be concerned about the impact of LeTV's resumption of trading. "Daily Economic News" reporter found in the major private circle visits, most private equity for LeTV resumption of the card is no longer as high as before, there is private equity, said, "LeTV is no longer their own food," so LeTV After the resumption of the card, it is unimportant whether it is falling or falling, and LeTV has already been transferred to a number of indexes as early as last year. The resumption of trading will not have a direct impact on the stock index.
Private equity also disclosed in private, "I learned that there is a private equity fund 'Lei Lei' LeTV, but are currently embarrassed to still hold LeTV, the private equity as a whole is not a lot of LeTV stock, even in accordance with the 13 limit If calculated, although it will generate a certain amount of losses, it will not have a significant impact on the net value of the company's products as a whole."
Chen Long, executive partner of US-Hong Kong Investment, believes that LeTV has no chance. He told the Daily Economic News reporter that he is watching the game and LeTV is an inevitable ending. Resumption of the market will not have a major impact on the market, because expectations have been digested by the market. But LeTV.com basically has no chance unless it introduces a truly professional management team.
No recommendation for LeTV
It is worth noting that once LeTV's stock price fell sharply, Jia Yueting estimated that there was no money to supplement the guarantee. Does Sunac have any measures to stabilize the stock price? In response to an investor's question on January 23, LeTV.com stated that Sunac has not yet expressed its intention to increase its holdings to the company. The company will, in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, promptly and truthfully change the shareholdings held by the actual controller and major shareholders. Disclosure.
LeTV also responded on the interactive platform that the company could not judge the share price after the resumption of trading. If the stock price of the company continues to fall, Jia Yueting needs to make up the margin with the pledge organization according to the terms of the agreement. If it fails to make up the margin on time, the pledge organization has the right to pledge The company’s equity was disposed of. Jia Yueting did not provide the company with its pledged equity disposal plan. Jia Yueting is still the company’s largest shareholder.
Regarding the question of whether LeTV is facing the risk of delisting, LeTV.com stated that it will work hard to restore business and protect the company's sustainable development. According to relevant laws and regulations and the company's actual business conditions in the future, the company has various possibilities.
In response, Zhang Shihang, Shenzhen Times’s Bole fund manager, scolded that LeTV was deeply troubled by debt and capital. Even if the decline is huge, it is not recommended for small and medium investors to participate. “It may be that Sun Hongbin does not understand the future of LeTV. We don’t even need to continue.†A cup of 'compassion'. Let's relive the short-term recovery of the card as soon as possible, as for resumption of trading after the continuous fall after the value is not worth buying, mainly depends on LeTV's business will be a substantial improvement.â€
Yang Yong, chairman of the Cloud River Fund, said that LeTV.com's resumption of trading in the continuous limit, a certain impact on the small and medium-sized creative. Contrast to overseas stock markets, the bubble of small and medium-sized companies is too big. Investors will become more and more rational with investments through the LeTV event. The GEM cannot be taken out of the door. The risk of delisting by waste companies is increasing, and companies that do not have long-term competitiveness are warned. Blindly looking for music as the net, the risk is relatively large.
A fund manager's vision: LeTV may be down 60% to 70%, but I still have feelings for it
At a time when LeTV was the first player on the GEM, it had numerous fans, including numerous public offerings, private equity fund managers, and market celebrities.
A reporter of the "Daily Economic News" contacted and interviewed a small and medium-sized private equity fund manager who had long been in a position of LeTV and still had a small amount of positions - a cattle manager from Shenzhen (a pseudonym). Once, the cattle manager can be regarded as music as "brain residue powder", buy music as stock, use music as a mobile phone, watch music as TV, everyone must be blowing music, and even a few years ago, the circle of friends is full of music and Jia Yueting blessings.
"Daily Economic News" reporter will arrange interviews with the cattle manager and present it to see his previous LeTV investment history and understanding of LeTV.
(one)
From this point of view, the final outcome of the LeTV system should be a 99% probability of failure, unless there is a large consortium to invest in LeTV. However, LeTV’s credit has basically gone bankrupt, and even if it has money, it needs a company like BAT to do the docking, and it will be possible to turn the corner.
LeTV's TV is doing very well. I think that the mobile phone is doing a good job, but Jia Yueting shouldn’t hurry to make a car. How much money a car does, and LeTV’s TV and mobile phone business does not have a hematopoietic function. I think the essence of Jia Yueting’s failure is too ambitious. It shouldn’t be too early to make a car. Letv car light is designed in the United States. It takes 2-3 billion people a year to pay salaries. The money he cashes at home is spent in the United States except for paying taxes. LeTV's mobile phones and televisions do not make money, and there is no hematopoietic function. Jia Yueting should go to lay a solid foundation for these two industries. Otherwise, if the capital chain breaks down, it must die. In my opinion, the old Jia’s model may succeed or fail, but the core is: It should not be to build a car.
(two)
I started to buy LeTV stock from 2013, and there are intermittent sales. Since 2014, it has begun to take a heavy position and was dropped before the 2015 stock market crash. Our products have lost most of their positions when LeTV.com's share price was the highest. Because our private equity is relatively small, and it is a fund management product, there are position restrictions, so in 2015 the amount of funds on LeTV is more than 30 million, not much. After selling LeTV at the high point, after 2015, there were too many negative news on LeTV. I would not dare to vote.
Personally, I think the water in the secondary market is far from the primary market. Many of my friends have invested in LeTV, LeTV, LeTV, etc. These are the big ones. In 2015, when LeTV Sports has a valuation of more than 10 billion yuan, how much is it worth now if funds are invested? LeTV has raised 1 billion U.S. dollars. How much is it worth now? In addition to music video industry is good, other music as basically everything is completely lost.
(three)
After the resumption of trading of LeTV.com shares, according to the current logic, it should fall by 60% to 70%. After that, it depends on how Sun Hongbin and the old man operated.
If LeTV is installed on the LeTV network of listed companies in a debt-paying manner, if LeTV is made, LeTV will be saved. At that time I may still invest again, but it will only take a step forward. If LeTV is not made, it will only be backdoor. For example, Sun Hongbin has injected real estate and other good assets into LeTV.
For those investors who still own LeTV stocks, I personally suggest that LeTV's daily limit will open up. LeTV is certainly immeasurable at a three to five daily limit, and then there are still many downsides that depend on the specific market trend. After Lexus.com's resumption of the plunge, it may still be that people will go to the bottom. But I will not do it. I am not a short-term expert. We are currently a firm value investment. For example, we hold stocks such as China Ping An, Gree Electric Appliance, and Midea Group. Therefore, the performance in the second half of last year was not bad.
(four)
From my own point of view, although I experienced LeTV, I was more grateful to Jia Jia. I still have feelings for LeTV. There are two main reasons: First, I earned a lot of money on LeTV and earned four. Five times. For another reason, LeTV let me personally experience what is called investment risk, which has contributed greatly to my current investment system. I am firmly determined not to vote for companies that have no performance and can only tell stories. There are too many storytelling companies in A shares. Only about 100 companies are worth long-term investment and value investment. The times are not the same. The hype of the A-shares in the past, with the failure of LeTV, should be gone forever. A shares will become more and more Hong Kong stocks in the future, and only a few high-quality companies can get the attention of funds.
A music as casual confession: stretch is a knife, shrink is a knife!
After a nine-month waiting period, 20,000 shares of LeTV in my hands finally came to us.
I am an old horse. I am 40 years old this year. I am a middle-class company with an old person and a small child. The two children are all "good," and on the surface, my life is smooth and smooth.
But all this, on the surface, is really just superficial. In these two years, the source of all suffering was from July 2016 when I bought LeTV at an average price of 50 yuan per share.
(one)
Initially focusing on LeTV, it was in 2015 that the promotion of "Prince of the Prince" was broadcast.
Originally I did not pay attention to these thunder's tragedies, but my wife liked it. Out of curiosity, once I looked at her with her, although it was vulgar, but it was easy, especially when it came to music as the music business, it was really open to the eye and people couldn't help laughing.
After that, I started to research LeTV. As an old investor who entered the stock market in 2006, I will conduct long-term fundamental research before each purchase.
In July 2016, after an observation period of up to six months, I bought 20,000 shares of LeTV at an average price of 50 yuan. This one million yuan is the money at the bottom of the house and the money that my wife and I originally intended to use for my son’s education.
Of course, I have to buy LeTV, there are good reasons - "Jiabusi" top-flight, unrestrained, not all of us are respected in this era it? But other than that, I don’t want to say more about the fundamental analysis I’ve done at the time, the company’s valuation, and so on. At that time, the reason for the trespass was now farting.
(two)
Afterwards, everyone knows. "Jiabusi" is not Jobs, after all, LeTV is not Apple. I watched LeTV as I watched, falling from fifty to thirty. There is only 600,000 left in my one million.
In fact, I cannot afford this loss. After all, the child is still young and the family is not waiting for the money to open the pot. However, what is more difficult to bear than loss is the anxiety about LeTV's future uncertainty.
In March 2017, his wife accidentally had a second child, and his wife quit her job. Originally, I would like to stick to LeTV, at least wait for it to come back after the loss, but this news made me feel very shaken - "Jabbis" even if one day can prove that he is really Jabbes, but if it took five years For ten years, LeTV has fallen into a long-term bear market like the 2002 Apple. What would I do if my family needed money?
However, when I hadn’t considered whether to stop the loss, LeTV suspended the license.
(three)
Major asset restructuring, in the A-share market, has mostly been successful but has failed - almost only a one-time limit.
Not to mention LeTV! This weighted company was among the top five companies in the GEM index. From the time I saw the suspension announcement, I knew that if it failed to reorganize, or if the reorganization failed to meet expectations, it was only “18 layers of hellâ€.
At the beginning of the LeTV suspension, I was caught in a frenzy of anxiety. Once there is free time, I will be crazy to see all the news about music, continuous brush Jia Yueting, Gan Wei's microblogging. The 20-year-old star-chasing youth may not be as fanatical as me.
Until one day, she went home for an inspection and burned her hands when I was cooking. At that moment, I suddenly realized that I have been out of control for too long.
At that moment, my thinking changed drastically. LeTV is already this way. For me, I blame Jia Yueting for not helping. If it can be recovered by legal means, I certainly should safeguard my own interests. However, in the capital market, if you want to live well for a long time, you should first think about why you made this mistake, rather than blame the responsibility of the people who are under the cover. After all, it's all me who press the buy and sell button.
(four)
Today, LeTV may have to resume trading. The knife will sooner or later fall. The failure to reorganize is actually not in my expectation, but it will always be disappointing - because everything has not settled before, I will always be lucky.
I don't know if I can sell off in the bottom of a few daily limit, and I don't know if there is any chance that LeTV will be back to life. For me now, when new family members arrive and my wife does not have a job for a while, my son’s piano lessons, Taekwondo, mortgage loans, and the total cost of my life are on me.
If LeTV’s investments are all overshadowed, I don’t know when I’ll have a chance to come back again—it’s true. Life is one-way. When I was twenty, I made a mistake. I have a lot of time to correct. But when I was forty, I made a mistake. The cost of error correction would be very high.
LeTV's mistakes, even if I have experienced more psychological construction, have accepted willingness to lose and lose, and still feel a sense of loss at the time of the resumption of the card. I finally know what it means to "cut meat." The bear market, it was a blunt knife to cut the meat and slowly numb the pain. Let's see it as a painful and bloody pain.
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