The trend of manufacturing transfer has a great relationship with the future of the country. There have been four large-scale manufacturing migrations around the world, and innovation is an important driver of the manufacturing boom. Currently, the biggest reality facing manufacturing upgrades and migration is the decline in total factor productivity.
It is widely believed that there have been four large-scale manufacturing migrations around the world:
For the first time in the early 20th century, the UK transferred some of its “overcapacity†to the United States;
The second time in the 1950s, the United States shifted traditional industries such as steel and textile to the defeated countries of Japan and Germany;
For the third time in the 1960s and 1970s, Japan and Germany transferred labor-intensive processing industries such as light industry and textile to Asian “four little dragons†and some Latin American countries;
For the fourth time in the early 1980s, developed countries such as Europe, the United States and Japan and the newly-developed industrialized countries such as Asia’s “four little dragons†shifted labor-intensive industries and low-tech and high-consumption industries to developing countries. Therefore, China has been in China for more than 30 years. It has gradually become the largest ground and beneficiary of the third world industrial transfer.
Professional institutions such as McKinsey and the Boston Consulting Group, as well as various economists and media, analyze the global manufacturing transfer from the perspective of “cost structure†(including comprehensive costs such as manpower, land, energy, and institutional transaction costs). It is judged whether the future manufacturing industry will flow to low-cost countries such as India and Vietnam, or return to Europe and the United States from China. The important driving role of innovation factors in the global manufacturing migration process has not received sufficient attention.
United States: Innovating in manufacturing processes to undertake the global, manufacturing shift
The process of the United States to undertake global capacity transfer and realize the rise of manufacturing industry is very long. Even before and after 1850, the United States already has 7 of the world's 10 largest industrial enterprises, and does not mean that the United States truly becomes a manufacturing power. In the industrial and technological competition, until the 1920s, the US manufacturing industry was completely on the top of the undisputed world, which was mainly due to the comprehensive innovation of the United States on the manufacturing and product side.
In the early 20th century, the United States, flashing great inventions and great companies, Ford's T-car and Cadillac's electronic starter opened the era of human car, Warner Bros.'s "Jazz Singer" led the prosperity of sound movies, stainless steel and Artificial gum reshapes the US manufacturing industry, and telephone and electrification have escalated the US industrial infrastructure.
In particular, the large-scale promotion of production lines and large-scale mass production, in addition to the ability to dilute fixed costs, has also led a large number of engineers to gather together in technology research and development, which has greatly promoted technological innovation. At that time, the organization of the British factory was relatively traditional. Small and medium-sized workshops were the favorite of British society, but such enterprises could not achieve scale economy and system research and development innovation.
By the 1920s, the gap between the UK and the US in the manufacturing sector was huge. At that time, official data showed that the United States' R&D expenditure accounted for 2.5% of the national output value, while the United Kingdom only 2% in the same period; the US civil engineer accounted for 13% of the total employed population, significantly ahead of the UK's 5 %. In 1929, the three pillar industries of the British economy were railway shipping, tobacco and alcohol, and textiles. The top three dominant industries in the United States were agricultural equipment and engineering machinery, vehicles and aircraft, steel and non-ferrous metals. The United Kingdom, an industrial power that is vying for global competition, has indulged in relying on tobacco and alcohol to survive.
Japan, Germany: Innovating to undertake global manufacturing transfer with collaborative system innovation
After the end of the Second World War, the United States gave priority to the development of traditional industries such as steel and textile light industry in Germany and Japan in implementing industrial plans to revive Europe and Japan. However, Germany and Japan are reluctant to accept this industrial arrangement. If they passively accept the transfer of low-end manufacturing, they will forever lose to the United States in future industrial competition. Since then, Germany and Japan have not only focused on the development of high-value export industries such as automobiles, machinery and electronics, but more importantly, they have undertaken global manufacturing transfer with an efficient and complete national industrial collaboration system.
Why are Germany and Japan able to have the most powerful SME group in the world? Germany calls this the "invisible champion company", which Japan calls "the tiny world's top companies." The industrial structure of Germany and Japan is becoming more and more refined. Many companies have only studied one type of parts for decades, only one product, which is world-famous and has very good benefits. The products they manufacture are based on the unique technology that they have tempered based on their own market. These “invisible champion companies†do not pursue to be big, but strive to become the “single enterprise†with some kind of world first. So far, many high-end manufacturing industries in China have not greatly adopted the key materials and core components of Germany and Japan, such as aviation glass, chips, bearings, optoelectronic products, etc., and their competitiveness will be greatly reduced.
Germany and Japan are leading the world in basic industrial technology, which is a major foundation for the two countries to maintain a leading position in the global manufacturing industry. To give two examples, China's rare earth reserves are the world's number one, but lack of technology to turn it into a material. These materials technologies have been developed with decades of accumulation. These materials can be nanoscale and placed in mobile phone chips. These require specialized machine tools, and these things are not available in the United States, but in Germany and Japan.
Semiconductors are called "information food", and advanced lithography machines are used to manufacture semiconductor chips. 70% of the world's semiconductor lithography machines are made in Japan, and Germany supplies the most important optical components. The lithography machine is the most sophisticated, critical and expensive equipment of all the machines that humans can manufacture so far. When lithography is performed on the chip, the positioning accuracy is 0.01 micron, which is equivalent to one hundred thousandth of the hair.
South Korea: Integrating innovation with industry chain to undertake global manufacturing transfer
In the process of shifting manufacturing capacity to the Asia-Pacific region, Taiwan and South Korea have played an important role. Among them, Taiwan is good at OEM and South Korea is stronger than industry chain integration. However, don't ignore the role of innovation. Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing level is world-class, Hon Hai Precision (the mainland is called Foxconn) assembled almost all Apple iPhones, iPads, TSMC, MediaTek is a world-class giant in the field of chip manufacturing.
Beginning in the early 1990s, designed by US companies, Taiwan is responsible for foundry fabs, with huge investments ranging from 4 inches, 6 inches, 8 inches to 12 inches now, from wafer fabrication to cutting, packaging, The test is done by different companies in Taiwan, forming an unprecedented huge industrial chain, accounting for more than half of the global chip manufacturing market share. At present, TSMC has already completed the 16-nanometer process. The mainland's Huawei HiSilicon and Spreadtrum must use the TSMC process to enable the design of high-end mobile phone chips to be mass-produced.
The iPhone and iPad are just "lab products" in Apple, and can be turned into mass consumer goods. There is a big gap in the middle - whether anyone can produce this product on a large scale. It's not too difficult for a lab to design a product and then spend a long time producing a sample. However, large-scale manufacturing, and those who do not have a technical background to manufacture, this requires a very reasonable planning process, the design of the mold is very accurate. There are many patented technologies involved. These molds are designed by Hon Hai and are “cross-authorized†with Apple. That is to say, in order to achieve mass production of a product, it is necessary to use these patents in the production process.
Samsung Electronics is the backbone of Korea's manufacturing industry. Its international competitiveness is based on the “full industry chain†model, which is a full-scale investment in chips, flash memory, LCD panels, flat-panel TVs, and mobile phones. Samsung's "full industry chain" model is not only a cost advantage, but more importantly, technology accumulation and innovation breakthrough.
The “Full Industry Chain†model enables South Korea’s Samsung to gain an in-depth understanding of technology and achieve efficient technological innovation and product innovation. After successfully mastering the storage and non-storage chip technologies, Samsung Electronics has successively mastered core technologies such as TFT-LCD, PDP, organic light-emitting display (OLED), mobile chip and flash memory chip. These technologies are actually semiconductor technologies from the root. These semiconductor chip technologies are largely benefited from the previous mastery of memory chip technology, and it is much easier to expand to other chip technologies.
China: Taking on the global manufacturing transfer with system strength
Mainland China really began to undertake the global manufacturing transfer, which should be after 2000. At present, well-known BAT (Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba), as well as hardware manufacturing related Haier, Lenovo, Huawei, ZTE, Xiaomi, Foxconn and other manufacturers and brands are gradually mature, China's manufacturing industry has formed a self-sufficient, can be overseas brands OEMs can also launch a huge system of their own products. This system was first referred to as the “red supply chain†in the UK’s Financial Times, published in September 2013. At present, the profit margin of China's manufacturing industry is still relatively low overall, but the system advantage has already formed.
The profit margin of many smart phones, home appliances and PC products exported by China is less than 5%. People take it for granted that 95% of profits are earned by others. Entrepreneurs are worried all the time, workers are exhausted and the country consumes resources. Leave pollution, and finally only earn a little money from it. Many people have not figured out that this profit margin is precisely behind China's strong industrial system and market system.
In addition to the introduction of some core and high-end electronic components, 95% of the enterprises are required to pay workers a certain amount of wages, pay a certain amount of factory rent, pay a certain amount of water and electricity, and pay a certain amount of taxes and fees. Pay a few commissions to the agent, pay a few yuan for the logistics cost, and pay the accessory dealer a few yuan... This is the largest part of the cost of the product.
After that, the cost will not disappear without any reason, only the RMB will be transferred from some people to others. Accessories suppliers need to supply accessories, and no doubt need their own labor, management, factory rent, water and electricity, logistics, warehousing, etc.; power supply bureaus need power supply, power station construction, coal mining, power equipment manufacturing; logistics company To provide efficient logistics, you need a vehicle, you need a driver, you need to pay for the highway; then the next step is to build a road, you need reinforced concrete, you need... the surface profit rate is less than 5%, and the bones need the whole country. Strong support for raw material industry, energy industry, infrastructure, logistics network, supporting industry and market system.
The reliability and speed of the manufacturing industry is more important than the price. Out of stock definitely brings more losses than the high price. Depending on China's investment in large and complete supply chains and infrastructure, Chinese suppliers appear to be more rapid and more reliable in foreign companies.
For the manufacturing powerhouses such as Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea, the "red supply chain" is a system that is also a friend. Without it, many emerging products such as the iPhone may not be available in a short time, nor will it be the current price. However, China's own products launched through this system are also speed, flexibility, low cost and some ideas, making it difficult for traditional industrial powers to compete in certain markets because they lack this system and conditions.
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