The double-credit policy will officially begin on April 1 this year. However, the new energy credit policy will not actually begin until 2019. As far as companies are concerned, they can wait until August 30, 2021 to complete the negative integral compensation task in 2019 and 2020. However, to prepare for the full launch of the double-integration policy, this year the government has a lot to do.
First of all, it will introduce the situation related to point trading in California's zero-emission vehicle policy. California has no trading platform because only about ten companies are regulated by the zero-emission vehicle policy. Closed-door transactions between enterprises, only need to report to the California Air Resources Committee, the number of points trading and trading units (not to disclose the price), by the California Air Resources Commission announced the balance of each company's points each year. In addition, the company can accept fines if it fails to complete the requirements for points: a fine of US$5,000 is owed for a missing point under the Health and Safety Code section 43211 of the California Health and Safety Code. Until now, no company has chosen to accept fines. The main reason is that companies believe that they are guilty of wrongdoing, affect reputation and have legal risks. The fine price in California provides a guiding price for the participating companies.
There are about a hundred companies controlled by the double-credit policy in China, and the one-on-one transaction method is obviously inappropriate. Trading through a trading platform is a consensus. However, the establishment of this platform is also very particular about. Fairness, transparency and independence are the basic ingredients for the success of this platform. What is most afraid of is that platform management operators use inside information to make profits and disturb the order of the trading market; this is a precedent in other trading markets. Fortunately, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is now establishing this independent, non-profit platform. Here, I wish the platform and trading mechanism to be established as soon as possible.
In addition, there are many factors that need to be considered in the future operation of the platform. For example, is the company reporting its entire production in the previous year on June 30 each year, or is it reported once a month? The last one-time notification is beneficial to companies that have surplus points, because the missing companies will be very anxious to find new energy vehicle points that can be purchased within a limited time. Also, whether third parties in the non-automotive industry can participate in transactions, or can companies buy or sell more points than they need to produce? These are questions that deserve research.
In January, it was also suggested that the lowest price for points should be set at the 100-person electric car conference, and that the score is too low to hurt new energy companies. On other occasions, it was also proposed that a ceiling price should be set to prevent the price from disrupting the market. But what is the value of a single new energy car in 2019-20?
Recently, the first electric vehicle network has published the article “How to calculate the price of new energy points when the double-integration policy is implemented immediately?†(hereinafter referred to as “how to calculateâ€). The author did a very persuasive analysis of the price of new energy car points. The article concludes that the value of a single new energy vehicle will be around 1,800 yuan in 2019 and 2,500 yuan in 2020 [1]. In other words, based on 2020 prices, the 3.8 points for a pure electric vehicle with a driving range of 250 kilometers will be only 9,500 yuan, which is much lower than the national subsidy of 34,000 yuan to be implemented after June 2018. 1/3 is not available and does not include local subsidies. One important reason for the introduction of double-integration policy is to replace subsidies with points. Such a low integral price will hinder the development of commercialization of new energy vehicles? The price of a single new energy vehicle's integral of 2,500 yuan in 2020 is also far lower than the forecast of another professional professional unit: the unit price is in the range of 6,300-8,800 yuan (recently updated to 5,000 yuan). I think the unit price of new energy vehicles is likely to be higher than 8,800 yuan. The reason is very simple. There is an unbalanced relationship between supply and demand for new energy vehicles.
For companies that have points for sale, if the buyer bids below the expected price, no transaction can be concluded, and there will be no impact on the survival of the selling company. Prior to 2020, the integrated surplus companies will still receive subsidies from the central and local governments. Their expectation on the price of points is at least not lower than the subsidy level, otherwise there will not be so many investors scrambling to enter the new energy automobile production industry. Why are Volkswagen and Ford rushing to find new energy vehicles in joint ventures?
According to traditional economics knowledge, there will be a point of intersection between supply and demand; but if the transaction cannot be successful, the point-and-earnings companies will be much better off than the deficits. Because of the just-needed presence in the points market, for a small number of companies with major points surpluses, selling half the points may be more profitable than selling all the points, and selling one-third may be even more profitable. If possible, they can only release 10-20% of the surplus points in each negotiation, and claim that other points are negotiating sales. For companies with a deficit of points, not buying points means partial suspension of production, leaving the market, especially the luxury car market, to competitors forever. This is unacceptable; the Chinese managers of joint ventures are under great pressure at the headquarters. "Getthedealdoneorelse!" Order, even if the unit price is 10,000 yuan is also a piece of cake.
Many forecasters stress that the new energy points will be slightly oversupplied in 2020. They may not have considered that many enterprise groups must keep new energy auto points in the group in order to meet the needs of the brother companies within the group. effect. Local governments may also intervene to promote the local surplus energy companies to sell their credits to local credit-defective companies at “friendly pricesâ€. Among the local enterprises, the majority of the state-owned enterprises are often under-represented, the local taxpayers are large and the leaders of enterprises are directly linked to the central government, and the local government has the obligation to support them. What is more serious is that a few companies have controlled the market for surplus new energy points. Some of the two companies lacking points need to buy new energy vehicles, but also need to buy additional points to reach new energy vehicles.
The data of each legal person unit is not easy to obtain, but as shown in Table 1, if we assume that we need to complete the 10% requirement for points in 2017, the top five group companies that have joint ventures are all big players. If we assume that we need to complete the 6% points requirement in 2017, only Changan has extra points in the top five groups, but Changan and its joint venture Ford need positive points for new energy vehicles to meet the standard negative points for fuel consumption. Of course, the first major SAIC passenger vehicle itself does not include the joint venture. In 2017, the number of new energy vehicles has reached 13%. It can be assumed that SAIC's excess points will remain in the group. Among all the companies, BYD has the most surplus points, followed by Geely and BAIC. In local companies, the Great Wall is the lowest, but it is still far better than joint ventures. As shown in Table 1, an average of 2.9 points for each new energy vehicle in the industry last year. Dongfeng Group's new energy vehicles can get 4 points each. BYD has an average of 3 as many plug-in hybrids. SAIC's new energy vehicles received an average of 2.6 points per vehicle.
If we envisage a 6% new energy vehicle integration policy in 2017, a total of 9 group companies have surplus points in Table 1. BYD's surplus points account for 30% of the total tradable surplus balance. BYD, Geely and Beijing Automotive Group together accounted for 70% of the market (Table 2).
If we envisage a 10% new energy car integration policy in 2017, there will be a shortage of new energy vehicle points for the entire industry. In Table 1, only seven group companies have surplus points. BYD can control 40% of all surplus points (Figure 3). BYD, Geely and Beijing Automotive Group together account for 74% of the market! Whether these three companies will be, shouldn't it be OPEC?
But please don't panic. The whole industry's claim that the supply of points exceeds demand in 2020 is not without foundation. In 2019, 15 emerging new energy auto companies are estimated to have more than 900,000 vehicles; and many joint ventures will also launch their new energy vehicles. Don't forget Tesla. In 2017, Tesla sold more than 16,700 vehicles in China. It was calculated on five-point-per-car basis and reached 84,000 new energy car points, which was the fourth highest among all the company's point-profit companies in Table 1. Can play a certain stabilizing effect on the credit market (see the last line of Table 1). I think that if Tesla can really share a share of the new energy car market in China, it also proves the openness of the market.
To sum up, the final unit price of new energy vehicles in 2019-20 depends on three factors: 1) whether China's emerging new energy auto companies can produce and sell a large number of customer-appropriate products in the short term; 2) whether the joint venture can turn quickly ;3) How strict is the integration policy for China in 2021 and beyond.
Therefore, my prediction is that the possibility of new energy vehicles with unit prices exceeding RMB 8,000 in 2019-20 is greater than 50%. However, it is not necessary for the government to set a minimum guide price. The low unit price indicates that the commercial market for China's new energy vehicles has matured and consumers have accepted new technologies; the unit price is high, indicating that those who dare to eat crabs need to receive the high-risk returns they deserve.
Of course, the strictness of the implementation of double-pointing policy is not the same as the child's play; if the penalty is not strict, then the final unit price of the points will indeed be lower than the price of imported baby carriages; this point, of course, domestic authors know better than I know the truth.
Wang Yunshi, Director of China Energy and Transportation Center, Davis Institute of Transportation, University of California, China
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